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2012 Mid-Year Market Update
What a year and we’re only half way home! Every year we see certain patterns play out whether the Carmel Valley real estate market is going up or down, and one of the most predictable events is the annual increase in homes going on the market (inventory) in the first half of the year. Not so in 2012! For the first time in memory we have had a significant decrease in inventory this year which has really shifted the “supply and demand” equation for Carmel Valley homes. Buyers (including investors) have gotten the message loud and clear that prices have stabilized and that interest rates are at rock bottom, so they are motivated to buy. The problem is the sellers are not quite so eager.
A fair number of homeowners are still under water with no equity in their homes and another segment have equity but just not enough to allow them to be move up buyers. The remaining sellers are no longer rushing to the market in fear that prices will keep dropping on them. And so we now are seeing a Carmel Valley real estate market where as prices start rising again, some sellers are taking the opportunity to list their homes and take advantage of the strong supply of buyers. This is creating a healthy, give-and-take dynamic for Carmel Valley homes. It’s a pattern we expect to continue for the remainder of the year.
Another positive sign for 2012 is the increase in list prices, especially in neighborhoods south of Hwy 56 like Carriage Run in Carmel Country Highlands and Torrey Hills. Supply is particularly low in these areas because of the newer construction age of homes that have limited equity. Buyers are also motivated by the excellent schools and location to freeways, the beach etc. On the north side of Hwy 56 the first half of 2012 brought solid increases in prices for neighborhoods like Promontory, Santa Fe Summit and Rancho Pacifica homes at the high end. Overall the supply of inventory is below 4 months which is a strong indicator of Carmel Valley moving to a seller’s market.
Finally with strong investor demand for rental properties including Carmel Valley condos and 3-4 bedroom single family homes, the lower end of the Carmel Valley real estate market is setting up a very solid base with which the rest of the segments can build on. While we don’t see large price increases happening in the market the remainder of the year, a slow and steady recovery is well underway and that’s good news for both buyers and sellers alike.
For a personalized analysis of your home’s value or to see a customized marketing strategy for selling your home, call the Dalzell Group at (858) 755-7740 for a private consultation.
Jim and his wife Jo, have lived in Carmel Valley since 1987 and first got into the real estate business in 1992 after a successful career in the construction industry in South Africa. Kevin Dalzell joined the Dalzell Group Real Estate team in 2002 after playing professional rugby in Europe (represented the U.S. in two Rugby World Cups) and is now living with his wife, Nina, in Solana Beach. Ryan Dalzell coordinates the team’s marketing program, and he joined the group in 2004 after working as a flight instructor. Ryan lives in Carmel Valley with his wife Julie and their 3 children. Amber Worsham recently joined the team as the new Marketing Manager & Transaction Coordinator. With over five years of experience in marketing real estate in Coastal North County, Amber provides us with extensive expertise in the print, internet and direct marketing aspects of the business.