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Through both good and bad real estate markets there is usually a fairly predictable selling pattern that emerges this time of year. Traditionally the first half of the year is the time when most of the serious buyers look to make a purchase, oftentimes trying to secure a home before summer vacations and the new school year. That leads to sellers and realtors often choosing to list properties now in order to “catch the wave” of buyers. So far in 2012 the usual strong buyer activity is once again being seen, but unlike most years we are now experiencing a real shortage of quality, well maintained and upgraded homes being offered for sale. Consequently the homes that present well and are priced well are selling quickly, even with instances of multiple offers in the past couples weeks.
The numbers support this with January pending sales having increased by 22% for Carmel Valley real estate over the same month last year. Not only that but the average time a Carmel Valley home stays on the market is 75 days which again is an improvement over the market time in 2011. Prices remain level from a year ago, which again lends strength to the theory that we have found a bottom in Carmel Valley real estate. The supply of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) are being held in check and this is helping firm prices along with a low current inventory.
No one is expecting a runaway seller’s market but the supply and demand pendulum certainly is swinging back to the seller’s side right now. Clearly the market for the first time in five years is forming a base. Going forward we feel that sellers who are prepared to price their homes realistically will find a good supply of buyers who have been patiently waiting, ready to step up and purchase. Buyers have the amazing incentive of interest rates that are at all time lows along with prices that have bottomed out for Coastal North County real estate.
Keep in mind that the real cost of a purchase is the rate the borrower has to pay for the loan. Take for example a $1 million property in Carmel Valley where the buyer puts 20% down and borrows $800,000. At today’s rate of about 4.5% the monthly mortgage payment is $4,053, compared to the cost of the loan a few years ago at a rate of 6.75% or higher that resulted in a monthly payment of $5,188. Put another way this is a savings of $408,600 over the term of the loan, or a 28% discount on the mortgage… No wonder the buyers are resurfacing in 2012!
For specific sales and trend data for your neighborhood contact the the Dalzell Group, Carmel Valley Realtors since 1992 at (858) 755-7740.
Jim and his wife Jo, have lived in Carmel Valley since 1987 and first got into the real estate business in 1992 after a successful career in the construction industry in South Africa. Kevin Dalzell joined the Dalzell Group Real Estate team in 2002 after playing professional rugby in Europe (represented the U.S. in two Rugby World Cups) and is now living with his wife, Nina, in Solana Beach. Ryan Dalzell coordinates the team’s marketing program, and he joined the group in 2004 after working as a flight instructor. Ryan lives in Carmel Valley with his wife Julie and their 3 children. Amber Worsham recently joined the team as the new Marketing Manager & Transaction Coordinator. With over five years of experience in marketing real estate in Coastal North County, Amber provides us with extensive expertise in the print, internet and direct marketing aspects of the business.